Thursday, 17 October, 2019

No-deal Brexit 'will push United Kingdom debt to highest level for decades'

No-deal Brexit would 'push UK debt to 50-year high' No-deal Brexit likely to push UK budget deficit to 100 billion pounds - IFS
Irene Mckinney | 09 October, 2019, 00:30

The Institute for Fiscal Studies believes that any no-deal Brexit would see United Kingdom debt rise to levels unseen since the 1960s.

Government borrowing next year will be more than double the amount forecast just six months ago, according to a top think tank.

An HM Treasury spokesperson said: "September's spending round supported the people's priorities of health, education and the police within the existing fiscal rules, as we said it would be".

It will continue to closely monitor the effects of the temporary tariff regime on the United Kingdom economy and has announced an exceptional review process will be used to make changes to the temporary tariff regime if necessary after exit day.

"The government is now adrift without any effective fiscal anchor".

A doubling in the annual budget deficit, leading, in relation to the size of the economy, to the highest government debt since the 1960s.

"In the longer term, a no-deal Brexit would mean less money to spend on public services - or higher tax rates - than staying in the European Union or leaving with a deal".

Farmers are going to feel betrayed by this Government's failure to act now in making sure that all that can be done is being done to help mitigate the damaging effects of a no-deal Brexit.

Google can recognize accident and call emergency number with app
Various leaks have shown that they will have a new design, dual cameras on the back, motion sensing, and other exciting features. The 15 October Made by Google event has been somewhat spoiled by the volume of Pixel 4 leaks, and not much is secret about it.

Prime minister Boris Johnson has also emphasised the importance of government spending programmes being temporary, should the economy not perform as well as expected.

However, even with "substantial" government spending, it said it expects the United Kingdom economy to flatline for two years following no-deal.

The think-tank projected that an increase in public spending in 2020 may be followed by an economic downturn as the government would have to face the consequences of a smaller economy with a larger debt. "An economy that turns out smaller than expected can, in the long run, support less public spending than expected, not more". If this were to come with tax cuts and further spending increases together worth 1 to 1½% of GDP (over and above the loosening at the September 2019 Spending Round), then growth should pick up to (a still poor) 1½% a year in the short term.

He said: "Business investment is up to 20 per cent lower than it would otherwise have been, hurting productivity and wage growth".

"But with the chances of us leaving in less than four weeks without a deal increasing by the day, the Prime Minister has missed a real opportunity to back British farmers".

"A no-deal Brexit - even with a substantial stimulus - could mean no growth at all for the next two years".

Whether - and if so how and when - the United Kingdom leaves the European Union will be perhaps the key determinant of growth over the next few years.

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