Thursday, 14 November, 2019

China trade war to drag down global growth

IMF says trade war cuts global growth to lowest since financial crisis a decade ago A general view is seen of the London skyline from Canary Wharf in LondonMore
Travis Berry | 19 October, 2019, 00:10

Also, the International Monetary Fund has revised upward the estimates regarding the current account deficit registered by Romania this year, to 5.5% of GDP from 5.

The IMF recently estimated that the U.S.

As per IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath, with a synchronised slowdown and uncertain recovery, the global outlook remains precarious.

However, she said the uptick in global growth in 2020 was driven by emerging markets and developing economies whose growth will rebound to 4.6% next year.

The report pointed out that for few major economies, including India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, and South Africa, growth in 2019 is sharply lower than in 2018, also for idiosyncratic reasons, but is expected to recover in 2020. Both China and India are set to grow about 6% this year - with a slowing outlook for China next year and faster growth for India.

The recent economic slowdown owing to the trade war and America's sanctions affected the global economy.

The tit-for-tat tariff tussle troubling the US and China, will cost global GDP growth 0.8 percentage points by 2020, the report said.

The IMF cautions that further escalation of trade tensions and associated increases in policy uncertainty could weaken growth relative to the baseline projection.

What can policymakers do to tackle the global economic slowdown?

Indonesia minister stabbed by IS-linked pair
Indonesia's security minister has been stabbed by a pair of attackers apparently influenced by the Islamic State militant group. Widodo, who appointed Wiranto to the top security post in 2016, visited him at the hospital.

Egypt said its economy grew by 5.6% in the 2018/19 year, slightly above the IMF's estimate of 5.5%, unchanged from April.

The hike in development projection for next year depends "on the premises that these dispute bottlenecks will obvious up", Gopinath talked about.

Faced with a slowdown in several sectors of the economy, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced a number of policy measures to support a recovery including slashing the corporate tax rate and a rollback of surcharges on foreign portfolio investors.

The IMF said that in India, monetary policy and broad-based structural reforms should be used to address cyclical weakness and strengthen confidence.

"The government has taken welcome steps with tax audits, e-filling, closing loopholes, combating corruption in tax offices, increased exercised taxes and it also launched its strategic growth initiatives that call for this high-level committee". The primary deficit means excluding the expenditure incurred on debt servicing so Pakistan is committed with the International Monetary Fund to convert primary deficit into surplus from next fiscal year and maintain it in surplus position over the medium term under the condition of the International Monetary Fund programme.

Other measures it instant integrated reducing the public sector's role in the monetary system, reforming the hiring and dismissal regulations that "would assist incentivise job creation and absorb the nation's effectively-organized demographic dividend", and land reforms to expedite infrastructure pattern.

Global trade growth reached just 1% in the first half of 2019, the weakest level since 2012, weighed down by higher tariffs and prolonged uncertainty about trade policies, as well as a slump in the automobile industry.

These disputes have whipsawed global markets and weighed on enterprise sentiment, although central financial institution easing has helped alleviate issues a couple of deeper financial slowdown, the report stated.

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